Tuesday, August 26, 2008

Ojai Home Prices Continue Slide

Number of sales begins to rebound as July closing highest since ‘07

By Daryl Kelley
It’s been nearly five years since homes in Ojai sold for so little.
The 15 houses and condominiums that closed escrow in July sold for an average of $460,000, the lowest average sales price since Ojai homes sold for a mean of $433,000 in December of 2003, according to an authoritative real estate information service.
Last month’s sales price compares with an average of $988,000 for 21 sales in July of 2007, and is the lowest selling price for purchases completed during that prime sales month since 2001, reported Melissa Data, an Orange County business firm.
And for the first two weeks of August, the average sales price remained below $500,000, the data firm reported.
All numbers are for the 93023 postal zip code, which includes Ojai, Meiners Oaks, Mira Monte and the Upper Ojai Valley.
Meanwhile, the average sales price in the rest of the Ojai Valley including Oak View — in the 93022 zip code — was $437,000 for five sales in July and $404,000 for seven sales for the first two weeks of August.
But even as prices have tumbled locally, the number of sales has begun to rebound. The 15 closed sales in the Ojai area in July ties the highest number in a month since last fall.
That sales increase is the result of bargain prices and is a sign that investors are buying up foreclosed homes that have pushed the market downward for 18 months, experts said.
“Certainly, we’ve rolled back to at least 2004 prices,” said Tom Weber, president of the Ojai Valley Board of Realtors. “The toughest part right now are homes from $600,000 to $1.1 million. Things are selling: they just have to be priced very aggressively.”
Weber said he’s telling sellers: “If you don’t have to sell right now, then don’t. But if you do, price it right.”
Even at reduced prices, the average time it takes to sell a house has spiraled upward to nearly five months, according to the valley Realtors board. There are 222 houses on the market this week, compared with 168 in January and just over 200 last fall.
“We have a wealth of great listings right now,” said agent Sharon MaHarry. “But a lot of potential buyers have been sitting on the fence waiting for the bottom ... They’re very savvy buyers. A lot of investors.”
In just the last week, however, several high-end and ultra-expensive homes have closed escrow, said MaHarry, who specializes in that market. “Other agents say they’ve seen the same thing.”
Since closed sales reflect escrows typically begun 45 days earlier, MaHarry said she expects sales and price data reported for September and October to be much higher than the July and August figures.
Veteran agent Riki Strandfeldt also said that the low July prices are for so few houses that they may simply be a statistical blip to be replaced with higher numbers when sales of a few expensive sales push that average upward.
Still, a glance at the average sales prices for July for the last few years tells a compelling story: Beginning in July 2002, when 45 homes sold for an average of $472,000, prices pushed upward to a high of $988,000 in July of 2007. Now, this July’s average price was about half that amount.
Until this year, Ojai’s real estate market had shown a remarkable resiliency to a deepening recession in home sales, as prices held relatively firm and sales were off far less than in other parts of Ventura County and Southern California.
But the effects of three years of declining sales and prices have finally taken their toll locally.
Weber said he recently sold a foreclosed home in Oak View for $375,000: “That same house at the height of the market in 2005 sold for $550,000,” he said.
Strandfeldt, past president of the Realtors board, said she’s working to sell two homes in which owners are behind on their payments and which will probably sell for far less than owed on mortgages.
One Oak View home needs to sell in the high $500,000s to pay off its mortgage, “but if we’re lucky it will sell in the mid-$400,000s,” she said.
Weber said Ojai home prices are down about 30 percent from the height of the market in 2005, but he said they will rise again.
“We’re three years into this downturn, and already sales are starting to pick up,” he said. In his 30 years in Ojai real estate sales, Weber said he’s been through three such up-then-down cycles.
“The difference is that this time the up side was higher, so we’re taking a bigger hit on the down side,” he said. “The bigger they are, the harder they fall.”
And one blessing remains for Ojai homeowners, he said. The recession hit later here, and the recovery typically hits sooner, he said.
“Ojai is a gem,” he said. “We’re a small area and we’re very desirable.”

27 comments:

Anonymous said...

If you do decide to sell, sell it by owner.

Anonymous said...

Wait to buy as the bottom is not here. Look for the bottom late 2009.

Anonymous said...

All those "affordable housing" advocates are getting their wish. Something tells me, it will never be enough.

Anonymous said...

Wait to buy as the bottom is not here. Look for the bottom late 2009.

This thing is snowballing out of control, and the bottom is not where the great wise ones say it is. Everything you might read to the contrary is just an attempt at damage control, and an attempt to stop the bleeding. The big newspapers have (probably been told to) cut back on the kind of daily factual economic reporting that was freaking people out and contributing to the recession effect, but nobody and nothing can effectively and neatly stop the rise in prices and the devaluation of the U.S. dollar. On this planet, we're not on top anymore and we no longer have the final say on how all of this plays out.

Anonymous said...

The big newspapers have (probably been told to) cut back on the kind of daily factual economic reporting...

Told by who?

Anonymous said...

Told by who?

By their advertisers. By the banks that hold the paper on these newspapers' debts. By the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. By concerned politicians.

live free or die said...

you know i cant understand people they maybe want to be controlled we have limited access to real news all you hear is what Paris and britney are up to but not bush and co.bush is only the current CEO of America inc. nothing will change for good until we yell in one voice no private agendas transparent government police profit from crime military profits from war so is it so odd they could and would contribute to crime and war to increase profits look around no borders and a war on drugs sound like the best of both worlds import drugs and bust people for drugs the CIA plane that crashed with 500 tons of coke on board is a dead giveaway if this is too much truth than bury your head in the sand and live in blissful ignorance

Anonymous said...

Live Free or Die, you put a period after "America Inc." is it too much to ask to put periods at the end of your sentences? I don't care about crappy spelling but it is so annoying to have to read your post again and again trying to get it right. Just because YOU can read your own post perfectly the first time dosen't mean any one else is so gifted. I agree that Bushco should be tried for war crimes but thats another blog.

live free or die said...

If its not up to your standards don't read it.I am long winded with a lot to say.The only question i get is where are the periods?More than just bush.The queen of England runs the world.Her and the 3 secret states.

Anonymous said...

There it is again, attack of grammar police. Someone seems to hang out here for just that. Get a life!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Anonymous said...

In this case, though, it was totally warranted because it's tough to understand anything that dude writes!

Anonymous said...

Live Free or Die,

Why don't you just admit that you are the Mr. Hyde side to James Hatch?

Let's face it, you rants are full of nothing but hot air. Sounds diabolically opposite to James Hatch.

James Hatch has grounded and reasoned opinions with proper punctuation. You have nothing but chaos.

Anonymous said...

Why must you pick on live or die? At least this person has the ambition to speak out. Most people are asleep or to afraid to make a move....

live free or die said...

Take it or leave it.

live free or die said...

Its not"live free or die's puncuation" blog is it????

live free or die said...

Let's face it, you rants are full of nothing but hot air. Sounds diabolically opposite to James Hatch.
"you rants"wtf?

Anonymous said...

No outside influence tells newspapers what to report, or what not to report.

Anonymous said...

No outside influence tells newspapers what to report, or what not to report.

Know any other good jokes?

Anonymous said...

Wheels within wheels, it's all a conspiracy and the media is a tool of capitalist oppressors!:-)

(Looks like some of the Ojai Post loonies have made their way by to share their 'special' knowledge.)

Anonymous said...

Methinks that the person who claims that the press is never controlled doth protest too much.

I clearly remember when, at the beginning of the Iraq War, the Bush Administration declared that there would be no photos of caskets being offloaded. (And that's the least of it.)

If you can't hold your own at the ojaipost, I guess you're lucky that you have this safe little sandbox.

Anonymous said...

LOL! That was no secret, and the media cooperated. In fact, the DoD rules on that became a story! Never mind that there is a reason the press doesn't print the names of rape victims, or show photographs of bodies beheaded by Al Queda. How about John Edward's baby, was that censorship? Well maybe Jordan Eason at CNN self-censored when he refused to report on Iraq atrocities in order to keep his "journalist access" (if not integrity). http://www.truthorfiction.com/rumors/c/cnn-iraq.htm

As for the ojaipost, it is a logic-free zone through the Alice-In-Wonderland looking glass. Intolerance and Judgment are exercised by a clique of loonies who believe they are tolerant and non-judgmental. That is why it has a reputation, not as a sandbox, but as a litterbox.:-)

Anonymous said...

So, every other country in the world has it's news censored by their military, government ideologues, religious zealots, the local oligarchy or their intelligence service, but not the U.S?

Dream on.

Anonymous said...

This is hysterical. Go back and read the article upon which you are commenting. The OVN has bucked the capitalist oppressors, and written a story about a subject you think is censored!

Cuba, N. Korea, China, Russia and Iran have news that is an extension of government, and are censored. Here, the media self-censors (see previous examples).

You can find out any info you want on home sales, credit defaults, qualified buyers, etc. and the proof of this is Financial Equities have been hammered by the marketplace as any business section or website will attest. But for people that believe "9/11 was an inside job" it might be too much effort to determine facts and require proof.

Anonymous said...

Go back and read the article upon which you are commenting. The OVN has bucked the capitalist oppressors, and written a story about a subject you think is censored!

Go back and read the whole thread. I didn't say that anything in this particular article was censored. I suggested that U.S. newspapers censor the news if pressed hard enough by outside forces.

The only thing around here that's hysterical seems to be you.

Anonymous said...

You go back and read my post.

You saidThe big newspapers have (probably been told to) cut back on the kind of daily factual economic reporting that was freaking people out and contributing to the recession effect... This article is a perfect example of data that you claim secret powers are trying to cut back on. Meanwhile, who DOESN'T know there are economic problems? It is on TV, radio, print, internet... Those secret powerbrokers aren't having much luck keeping this information from the public.

Anonymous said...

You saidThe big newspapers...

This is hardly a big newspaper.

Right-wing advertisers have not only gotten articles pulled, they've gotten entire investigative series pulled, and they've caused uncooperative reporters to be sent on down the road. I know it. You know it. You're just reduced to playing word games. You're desperate to win an anonymous argument on a tiny blog. I'm not. If you want to win, just say that you've won. Declare victory and relax. That's the best outcome you can hope for, because you're not going to change my mind, ever, and I'm certainly not the only person who believes what I believe. (And, this doesn't have squat to do with 9/11.)

Anonymous said...

You're just reduced to playing word games.

Oh, so now my point is not valid because you were only talking about "big" papers?:-)

Please name some examples of these articles pulled and their subjects, and some of the big powers that have that kind of stick. Any type of influence would be a story in and of itself. Your assertion doesn't hold water without evidence.